AL-PRO GmbH & Co. KG

fluctuation analyses

A comprehensive consideration of uncertainty is standard in each provided wind report due to the actual technical guidelines. This analysis includes the uncertainties associated with the computation and measuring methods in relation to the determined energy yield over a long time period. But like weak wind years in the recent past show, it is just as important to consider a comprehensive risk analysis to obtain an understanding of the annual irregularities (fluctuation) of the wind resource which is especially high in moderate climate zones.

Simply said:
How sure are we that a predicted long term annual yield can also be really achieved in the next 2, 5 or 10 operational years?

AL-PRO uses spatially and temporal highly resolved information and advanced mathematic methods like neural networks to determine the long term climatic history of your site. Based on this we compute the probabilities of excess and deviation with regard to obtaining the calculated long term annual yield in each desired level (e. g. P50, P75, P90) and for each desired time period. This analysis is possible for yield determinations completed by AL-PRO and also for yield determinations completed by other consulting offices, provided they have been prepared according to the current standards and technical guidelines.

In addition we analyze monthly and seasonal yield fluctuations that can be expected for your wind farm.

performance analyses

We analyze the operational behavior of your wind farm after it has been commissioned and a few months of operational data have been obtained.

The high-efficient method of analysis developed by AL-PRO covers possible yield deficits due to lack of technical availability, equipment technology or short term fluctuations of the wind resource. We determine probabilities of excess and deviations (e. g. P50, P75, P90) for different periods of operation for your wind farm. In order to analyze the fluctuation (volatility) of the wind resource, we use conventional data such as wind indices as well as meteorological data from a variety of global sources.

Due to the use of modern mathematical and statistical methods of analysis, we are able to provide reliable studies about the operational behavior of your wind farm after it has been operational for a few months. Here classical statistical and meteorological approaches are used as well as neural network systems.